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Culture

2021 OSCAR Predictions!

todayApril 25, 2021 37

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Hello friends.  It’s that time of year where I predict what movies win what OSCARS.  I know it’s a little late, but let’s see if I can improve on that 18/24 from last year.  Shall we skip the pleasantries and get right into the predictions? I think we shall.

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

A bunch of Oscar statuettes
Plenty of these will be given away tonight! Cred: Thank You (21 Millions+) views on Flickr

Who Will Win: Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom)

Who Should Win: Boseman or Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal)

This category is stacked this year, but I think the winner is pretty clear.  Boseman will win due to his incredible final on-screen performance in Black Bottom, along with the fact it is the ultimate honor for the Academy to give his family after his tragic passing.  I do want to mention Riz Ahmed, who was PHENOMENAL in Sound of Metal.  In my opinion the most real and honest performance of the year, Ahmed would’ve won this award in most other years.  Going up against a powerhouse in Boseman is a tough draw, who also acted his heart out in what will be the winning performance.

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Who Will Win: Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah)

Who Should Win: Kaluuya

Daniel Kaluuya is physically incapable of being bad in movies.  It just isn’t in his blood.  And boy oh boy did he do it again with this performance.  The guy is simply put; perfect in this role.  I didn’t even consider picking any of the other options, which is saying a lot because this is another very deep category this year, with Kaluuya’s co-star Lakeith Stanfield also very deserving of his nomination in the category.  Easy pick here for the heavy favorite.

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Who Will Win: Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman) or Viola Davis (Black Bottom)

Who Should Win: See above.

Man, what an absolute dogfight the top of this category turned out to be.  Davis was the heavy favorite for a lot of the year, and then Carey Mulligan came out with the powerhouse that is Promising Young Woman.  These two are currently neck and neck in the betting odds with very good reason, while Frances McDormand and Andra Day not far behind them.  This was a great year for the acting categories, but I expect one of those two to take the cake for this award.  McDormand might be a good value pick for you bettors out there, though.

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Who Will Win: Youn Yuh-Jung (Minari)

Who Should Win Anyone not named Glenn Close

No disrespect to the great Glenn Close, but Hillbilly Elegy just wasn’t a good movie and I personally thought she wasn’t very good in it.  All the respect in the world to a Hollywood legend, but this isn’t her year.  As for the rest of the nominees, I thought they were all fantastic in their respective movies, and I think Jung was excellent in Minari, but I wouldn’t have a problem with any of them winning.  My favorite nomination has to be Maria Bakalova for Borat 2 (I’m not writing the full name), just because she was hilarious and fit perfectly into the movie.  In my opinion, you can’t go wrong here.

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

What Will Win: Soul

What Should Win: Soul

Full disclosure, I haven’t seen A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon. But I saw the rest of them, and they were all deserving to be nominated.  But this is Soul.  If you haven’t seen it, please do yourself a favor and watch it ASAP.  I loved it, and I know you will too.

CINEMATOGRAPHY

A Man holding an old school movie camera
Cred: PH1 Dave MacLean

Who Will Win: Joshua James Richards (Nomadland)

Who Should Win: Richards

I didn’t love Nomadland as much as most people did (more on that later) but the movie was beautifully shot.  This is one of those categories I can’t write too much about because my smooth brain doesn’t understand how real cinematography works, but I know it when I see it.  This has it.

COSTUME DESIGN

Who Will Win: Ann Roth (Black Bottom)

Who Should Win: Roth

This is another category that I don’t know too much about so I’m not going to bore you with the details.  The costumes in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom were expertly crafted, especially Rainey’s.  I like the favorite in this category, with my runner up probably being Mank.

BEST DIRECTING

Who Will Win: Chloe Zao (Nomadland)

Who Should Win: Thomas Vinterberg (Another Round)

Did anyone see Another Round? I sure did and boy was it fantastic.  I loved the job that Vinterberg did with this film and I wanted to give him the credit he is due for this awesome movie.  But what Zao did with Nomadland really is an achievement and deserves to be recognized.  Look for her to be the second woman to win the coveted award.

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE FILM

What Will Win: My Octopus Teacher

What Should Win: That

Didn’t see all of the movies in this category sadly.  But I did see that one, and it was a very well put together documentary and deserves to be recognized by the Academy.  That is all.

DOCUMENTARY SHORT FILM

What Will Win: A Love Song for Latasha

What Should Win: Heck if I know, man.

Gonna be honest, I haven’t watched these.  I went with the betting favorite, and I don’t really regret it.

FILM EDITING

Who Will Win: Mikkel E. G. Nielsen (Sound of Metal)

Who Should Win: Nielsen

I loved this movie, and a big part of it was the impeccable editing that Nielsen put on display.  This movie was so good and so well put together that I don’t think anyone else really comes close to the job done on Sound of Metal.  Vegas has Trial of the Chicago 7 with the same odds, but I really don’t think there’s a contest.

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

What Will Win: Another Round

What Should Win: Another Round

Please.  See this movie.  I don’t want to beg but I will. It is, and I don’t say this lightly, a masterpiece.  You’ll laugh, you’ll cry, you’ll fall in love with Mads Mikkelsen if you haven’t already.  It is the heavy favorite for this award and it very well should be. The rest of the movies were good, this one is incredible.

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

What Will Win: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

What Should Win: Black Bottom

Another category I know next-to-nothing about.  Hair and makeup in this movie were on point though, especially once again with the titular character.  I really enjoyed this flick and I hope it gets the recognition it deserves in the fringe categories like this one.

A piece of sheet music
Cred: Old Photo Profile on Flickr

ORIGINAL SCORE

Who Will Win: Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, and Jon Batiste (Soul)

Who Should Win: Those three fine gentlemen right there.

You might be asking yourself “wait, Reznor and Ross are nominated for a movie that wasn’t directed by David Fincher, in a year where Fincher directed a movie?” Yes.  They are.  They’re also nominated for Mank, making this one of the rare occurrences where someone is nominated for two movies in the same year and same category.  Mank also has an incredible score but this was their masterpiece this year.  The two forayed more into Jazz stylings with this and it was *mwah* chef’s kiss.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

What Will Win: Speak Now (One Night in Miami)

What Should Win: Honestly, I don’t have a take.

Speak Now is a good song.  I think all of the nominees are good songs.  This is usually one of my favorite categories to talk about but this year is just… meh.  I think if I HAD to pick one it would be Fight for You from Judas and the Black Messiah, but I really am indifferent this year and that makes me sad.  Moving on.

PRODUCTION DESIGN

What Will Win: Mank

What Should Win: Mank

The production value on this movie was impeccable.  This is far from my favorite David Fincher movie, but it certainly deserves to be recognized.  Plus, you didn’t think a Fincher movie, about old Hollywood, written by his dead father, and was shot in black and white would leave THIS award’s show empty handed, did you?  Didn’t think so.

ANIMATED SHORT FILM

What Will Win: If Anything Happens I love You

What Should Win: That one.

I saw this one.  It was very good.  Moving on.

LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM

What Will Win: The Letter Room

What Should Win: One of these nominees

Didn’t watch any of them.  The Letter Room is -125 to win.  Moving on.

SOUND

What Will Win: Sound of Metal

What Should Win: The one with the category in the name

Might be the easiest pick of the night for me.  The sound in this movie was perfection and this deserves the award more than the rest of the nominees combined.

VISUAL EFFECTS

What Will Win: Tenet

What Should Win: Tenet

Remember when Christopher Nolan was going to save the movie industry with Tenet? I sure do, and boy was it an attempt.  I saw this in theaters, and it was a cinematic experience to say the least.  It isn’t on the Mount Rushmore of Nolan films, but this movie had some excellent VFX and this is the only award it will win so props to it.  At least it wasn’t nominated for sound.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Who Will Win: Chloe Zao (Nomadland)

Who Should Win: Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller (The Father)

In terms of actual screenwriting, I don’t know if there was a better script this year than The Father.  This movie is harrowing, emotional, and made me cry like a little baby.  I wish it had a better chance to win this award, but sadly all signs point to Nomadland winning here.  Nomadland had a good script, but I don’t think it was necessarily the best in this given category.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Who Will Win: Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman)

Who Should Win: Fennell should win twice

Love this movie.  This will be the consolation prize for not winning Best Picture. I wish this would win best picture, but it won’t.  I love this movie so much. More on that later.  And by later I mean now.

BEST PICTURE

Nominees:

Promising Young Woman

Nomadland

Judas and the Black Messiah

The Trial of the Chicago 7

Mank

Minari

Sound of Metal

The Father

What Will Win: Nomadland

What Should Win: Promising Young Woman, The Father, Sound of Metal, Minari, or Judas and the Black Messiah

Yeah, that’s right.  Nomadland is my 6th favorite movie of this group.  I like Nomadland, I love the other ones.  Frances McDormand was very good in this movie, but the rest of it didn’t really resonate with me.  The rest of these, however, are legitimately great movies in my humble opinion. Promising Young Woman was my favorite movie this year and I wish it was the favorite to win this award.  The Father was emotional and incredible.  Sound of Metal was phenomenal and the biggest surprise of the year.  Minari continues the streak of excellent movies that aren’t really in English.  Judas and the Black Messiah was so well acted it hurts and the movie had a message and subject matter everyone can get behind.  It was a very top heavy group in the category this year, but I think all of those films are more deserving than Nomadland.  Also, if Another Round was nominated I would pick that here too.

Written by: Mark Rowlands

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